Will Afghanistan become a terrorist safe haven again?

When the United States invaded Afghanistan 20 years ago, the primary mission was to root out the al-Qaida terrorists responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks and the Taliban regime that had given them safe harbor.

The recent withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country, which allowed the Taliban to swiftly regain control, has sparked debate over whether Afghanistan could once again become a staging ground for extremists to plan acts of terror in the U.S. and around the world.

In his address to the nation on Monday, President Biden called the counterterrorism mission in Afghanistan a “success” and argued that the U.S. will still be capable of disrupting terrorist activities in the country without American troops present.

The Taliban have also insisted that they will not allow any groups “who wish to harm or threaten the security of other countries” to operate within their borders.

From 1996 to 2001, when the Taliban controlled the majority of Afghanistan, between 10,000 and 20,000 terrorist recruits passed through various training grounds throughout the country.

The U.S. invasion disrupted al-Qaida’s operations but didn’t eliminate the group entirely. As of last year there were between 400 and 600 al-Qaida fighters in Afghanistan, according to a United Nations assessment.

Given the Taliban’s history, many fear Afghanistan will soon become a staging ground for terrorist groups again — not just al-Qaida, but also the Islamic State and others. “We’re less safe as a nation,” Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said. But the warnings aren’t only coming from Biden’s political rivals.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley have both told lawmakers that the absence of American troops could create space for extremist groups to plan attacks in the U.S., Europe and Afghanistan’s regional neighbors including China, Pakistan and India.

In general, there is substantial doubt that the Taliban can be trusted to keep their word that they won’t harbor terrorists.

Others worry that, even if the Taliban are being sincere, they may run into the same challenges that the U.S. did when attempting to patrol every part of Afghanistan’s vast, mountainous terrain.

Despite those concerns, many experts are hopeful that terror groups can be kept at bay in the country.

One of their core arguments is that counterterrorism strategies have changed dramatically over the past 20 years.

During that period, the loopholes that allowed 9/11 terrorists to attack have been closed, technology for tracking terrorists has improved dramatically, and the U.S. has developed sophisticated “over the horizon” counterterror capabilities that don’t require boots on the ground.

Some foreign policy experts also say the Taliban have enormous incentive to do everything they can to keep terrorists out.

They argue that the Taliban understand that another major attack in the West planned within their borders could lead to yet another invasion.

Beyond the threat of a military response, others say the Taliban cannot afford to alienate the international community as they work to entrench their rule over Afghanistan.

Source: Yahoo News