Why Isis is targeting Russia, according to experts
As Russia reels from the shock of the attack by Isis terrorists at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall that left at least 137 people dead, questions are being asked about why the jihadist group is targeting the country.
Russian authorities said 11 people had been detained over the attack and that four were directly involved: they were officially identified as Tajikistan citizens and appeared in court on Sunday.
While the Kremlin has refused to comment on their motives, the Afghan branch of Isis, known as Islamic State Khorasan, has claimed responsibility. The US and other Western intelligence services confirmed the attack was linked to the group.
Islamic State Khorasan (Isis-K), named after an old term for the region that included parts of Iran, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, emerged in eastern Afghanistan in late 2014 and is an offshoot of the original Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, also known as Daesh.
Why does Isis see Putin as an enemy?
Security experts say IS has long seen Russian President Vladimir Putin as an enemy both for his oppression of Muslims domestically, notably in the Russian republics of Chechnya and Dagestan, and for sending Russian soldiers to join in regional conflicts against Muslim groups in places as diverse as Syria, Afghanistan and West Africa.
Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst on Jihadism with the International Crisis Group in Geneva, says IS increasingly sees Russia as one of its prime enemies.
“There are both historical and contemporary reasons,” he says.
“Historically, there are memories of the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and the operations of Chechnya. And more recently, Russians have been involved in Syria, in the Sahel region in Africa. For IS, Russia is seen as apostate: this is a religious battle.”
Is there a link to the war in Ukraine?
Mr Putin has tried to blame Ukraine for the attacks, but Mr Drevon says this line will be hard for the Kremlin to maintain.
“They will continue to try at least to portray it as something from Ukraine, but ultimately, they know the truth, they know what it’s about and they will have also to focus on stopping these groups,” he says.
“And in the end, it’s very embarrassing, because it was a big selling point of Putin, that ‘I’m bringing you security.’”
Colin Clarke, of New York-based research group the Soufan Centre, says Isis-K was able to take advantage of the Kremlin’s focus elsewhere. “The key to the attack was that the Russian security services are clearly stretched thin with the war in Ukraine,” he said.
“They have also been focused on arresting Alexei Navalny’s supporters. Basically, everything except doing what they should be doing, which is focusing on counterterrorism and internal security.”
What does Isis hope to achieve?
Murat Aslan, a former Turkish army colonel and military analyst with the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (Seta) in Ankara, says IS – or Daesh, as it is known in the Middle East – has long seen Russia as a rival.
“As Russia is imposing itself in Central Asia, it threatens Daesh, which is trying to build its own area of influence there, including in Afghanistan,” he says.
Mr Aslan points to IS attacks that blew up a Russian plane over Egypt’s Sinai desert in 2015 with 224 people on board, a bomb attack on the St Petersburg metro in 2017, and a suicide bomb attack on the Russian embassy in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul.
“They want to make a statement by showing how they can reach into the heart of Russia,” Mr Aslan says.
“This is first about the tactics: they speak perfect Russian, so they can easily slip in. But their ultimate aim is to activate all radical organisations under a broad umbrella, expanding their reputation through these brutal attacks.”
Source » inews.co.uk
