Venezuela and Iran: Anti-western partnership of necessity

Venezuela and Iran have been close economic and ideological partners for years. How will the relationship develop in light of the new US administration?

In February, two planes operated by the Venezuelan airline Conviasa left the Mexican city of El Paso for Venezuela.

On board were Venezuelan migrants, including members of the criminal gang Tren de Agua.

These flights were the result of earlier talks between US special envoy Richard Grenell and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Following their meeting in Caracas, Grenell returned to the US with six imprisoned American citizens.

This meeting highlights one aspect in particular: The US and Venezuela are once again talking to each other.

In Iran, however, the situation is somewhat different.

As of now, US President Donald Trump has not sent a representative to Tehran.

Currently, contact with the Iranian government is mainly based on political pressure.

In February, Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum to restore maximum pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon, and countering Iran’s malign influence abroad.

According to the White House, Iran’s terrorist network should be neutralized and Iran’s aggressive development of missiles, as well as other asymmetric and conventional weapons capabilities, should be countered.

Following the announcements, the Iranian Foreign Minister expressed his willingness to talk. “It is not difficult to reach practical assurances that Iran will not have nuclear weapons, provided that objective guarantees are also provided that hostile measures against Iran — including economic pressures and sanctions — will be effectively terminated,” Abbas Araghchi stated on X.

Economic ties

The question now remains as to how the Trump government’s decisive course towards Venezuela and Iran will affect the relationship between the two countries.

Until now, they had fostered close political ties and collaborated closely on economic matters.

Last November, the excellent connection between the two countries went so far that the government in Caracas offered asylum to the political leadership in Tehran in the event of a coup in Iran.

It seems that these plans are well advanced: According to the Chilean newspaper La Tercera, members of the Iranian leadership have already acquired real estate in Venezuela.

Both countries face high economic pressure, largely due to severe Western sanctions, particularly from the US, the European Union and several Western countries, including the UK and Canada.

These sanctions are justified on the grounds of human and civil rights violations, in Venezuela as well as in Iran.

Iran is also sanctioned because of its nuclear program.

In addition, both countries are very isolated in their respective regions.

“Iran lacks an allied government in the Middle East, and relies on non-state actors such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iran and the Houthi militia in Yemen,” Sara Bazoobandi of the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel told DW.

“However, since the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, their significance has dwindled massively,” she added.

“The situation is similar in Venezuela,” Sabine Kurtenbach, Interim President of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg, told DW.

“In the end, the country only has backing in Latin America from Nicaragua, Cuba and parts of the opposition in Bolivia,” she said.

This is why cooperation between the two countries makes economic sense, Kurtenbach added. “Both are interested in circumventing the sanctions as far as possible, or at least mitigating their effects,” she said.

Iran exports refined oil products to Venezuela, as Venezuelan crude oil often cannot be processed due to a lack of infrastructure. Iran also supports Venezuela in building refineries, infrastructure and industry.

According to La Tercera, weapons such as drones also find their way from Iran to Venezuela.

For its part, Venezuela supplies Iran with crude oil and petroleum products as well as agricultural products such as coffee, cocoa and tropical fruit. The government in Caracas also pays for Iran’s technical services with Venezuelan gold.

Ideological ties

“The basis of the close relationship between the two states is also their ideological affinity,” says Ibero-Americanist Sabine Kurtenbach.

“Both states are linked by their ideology of the so-called ‘anti-imperialist struggle’ against the US,” she added.

“In Iran, it started with the revolution in 1979, in Venezuela with the beginning of the presidency of Hugo Chávez in 1999,” she stated.

In Kurtenbach’s view, this has prompted Venezuela to present itself as a pioneer of a multipolar world order.

“The Maduro government is aiming for a constellation in which the US has less global power and less influence as only in such a constellation can the Maduro government survive in the long term.”

As a result, verbal attacks on the US are part of Nicolás Maduro’s ideological inventory.

Iran shares a common world view not only with Venezuela, but also with China, Russia and North Korea.

“This is based on the decline of the current liberal order and the decline of the global power of the West, led by the US,” Sara Bazoobandi said, adding that “the rhetoric cultivated by the country’s leadership reflects this.”

In November 2020, shortly after the US presidential elections at the time Iran’s religious and political leader Ali Khamenei said that “no matter who comes to power in the US, their policy towards Iran is the same: Hostility, arrogance, hypocrisy. They are the true face of evil.”

Uncertain future

“Accordingly, Iran shares Venezuela’s ambitions” Sara Bazoobandi told DW.

“These countries trust each other and their actual cooperation is based on trust,” she said.

And yet, it remains to be seen how the relationship between the two countries will develop in light of the Trump administration.

“Iran’s strategic course is at a turning point,” Sara Bazoobandi highlights.

Trump wants Tehran to give up its nuclear ambitions. Otherwise, the risk of a military strike by Israel against the nuclear facility increases.

“If Iran accepts this condition, sanctions are likely to be eased, opening up more opportunities for Iran to reintegrate into the global economy,” she said, adding that “in this case, Venezuela might not be an attractive partner.”

However, if Iran decides to reject the US condition and continue its nuclear program, countries like Venezuela could become more economically important for Iran, according to Bazoobandi.

Sabine Kurzenbach takes a similar view. “If the US were to cooperate with Venezuelan oil production in the future, that would certainly be interesting for the Maduro government,” she said.

Source » al-monitor