Taliban terrorist group appointed new military commander

In mid-May the Taliban appointed a new military commander, Ibrahim Sadar, to replace Abdul Qayyum Zakir, who resigned in late April.

Little is known about the new military commander. The Pakistani government released Mr Sadar and several other Afghan Taliban detainees from prison in late 2013 as part of an effort to promote peace talks between the Afghan administration and the Taliban.

Afghan government officials claim that Mr Sadar, who joined the Taliban in 1994, was a prominent Taliban commander during the group’s civil war against the Northern Alliance and one of the few who reported directly to Mullah Omar, the Taliban’s leader.

There is speculation that he has a close relationship with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency and that his appointment reflects the Pakistani government’s effort to assert more control over the Afghan insurgency.

Afghan officials also allege that Mr Sadar is an ally of Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, the Taliban’s deputy leader, who clashed with Mr Zakir. The Taliban stated that Mr Sadar’s predecessor had stepped down from his position because of his ill health and heavy workload.

However, his resignation is likely owing to the Taliban’s failure to disrupt Afghanistan’s recent presidential election, his conflict with Mr Mansour and his unpopularity with subordinate Taliban military commanders, towards whom he had a reputation for brutality.

The replacement of Mr Zakir with Mr Sadar may provide more opportunity for peace talks between the Afghan government and the insurgency, particularly if the US and other governments pressurise Pakistan’s administration to encourage the Taliban to engage in talks.

Mr Mansour is believed to be a more moderate leader within the Taliban and a supporter of reconciliation with the Afghan government, something which Mr Zakir opposed.

According to the Wall Street Journal, a former Taliban official has claimed that the group did not expect the extent of voter turnout in the election and may be rethinking its strategy as a result.

Although Mr Sadar’s appointment may improve reconciliation prospects, we expect distrust between Pakistan and Afghanistan to impede any efforts to bring the Taliban into talks.

Moreover, the two governments and the Taliban are likely to wait until the various political factions in Afghanistan adapt to the international troop withdrawal.

Source: EIU