Israel, US and Iran’s allies inch closer to all-out global war as ‘big’ change ahead
The world is on the brink of a major new conflict involving allies of America, Israel and Iran, experts fear.
In the last week alone, Israel killed a senior Hamas militant in an airstrike in Beirut, Hezbollah has struck a sensitive Israeli base with rockets, the US killed a militia commander in Baghdad and Iran-backed rebels in Yemen have traded fire with the US Navy.
Each strike and counterstrike increases the risk of the already catastrophic war in Gaza spilling across the region.
The divisions within each camp add another layer of volatility: Hamas might have hoped its October 7 attack would drag its allies into a wider war with Israel.
Israel increasingly talks about the need to change the equation in Lebanon even as Washington aims to contain the conflict.
As the intertwined chess games grow ever more complicated, the potential for miscalculation rises.
Qassim Qassir, a Lebanese expert on Hezbollah, said: “They don’t want war, but at the same they don’t want to let the Israelis keep striking without retaliation.
“Something big has to happen, without going to war, so that the Israelis and Americans are convinced that there is no way forward.”
When Israel responded by launching one of the 21st century’s most devastating military campaigns in Gaza, the so-called Axis of Resistance – Iran and the militant groups it supports across the region – faced pressure to respond.
The Palestinian cause has deep resonance across the region, and leaving Hamas alone to face Israel’s fury would have risked unraveling a military alliance that Iran has been building up since 1979.
Hezbollah faces the biggest dilemma – if it tolerates Israeli attacks, it risks appearing to be a weak or unreliable ally.
But if it triggers a full war, Israel has threatened to wreak major destruction on Lebanon, which is already mired in a severe economic crisis.
Hezbollah has carried out strikes along the border nearly every day since the war in Gaza broke out, with the apparent aim of tying down some Israeli troops.
Israel has returned fire, but each side appears to be carefully calibrating its actions to limit the intensity.
Israeli leaders have repeatedly threatened to use military force if Hezbollah doesn’t respect a 2006 UN cease-fire that ordered the militant group to withdraw from the border.
Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, said: “Neither side wants a war, but the two sides believe it is inevitable.
“Everybody in Israel thinks it’s just a matter of time until we need to change the reality,” so that people can return to their homes, he added.
Iran-backed militant groups in Syria and Iraq have launched dozens of rocket attacks on US bases.
The last thing most Americans want after two decades of costly campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan is another war in the Middle East.
The regional tensions are likely to remain high as long as Israel keeps up its offensive in Gaza, which it says is aimed at crushing Hamas.
Washington has provided crucial military and diplomatic support for Israel’s offensive and is widely seen as the only power capable of ending it.
Iran’s allies seem to believe Washington will step in if its costs get too high – hence the attacks on US bases and international shipping.
Antony Blinken, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock are all back in the region this week, to try to contain the violence through diplomacy.
But the most important messages will still likely be sent by rocket.
Source » msn.com
