Huthis on the terror list: what does it mean for Yemen?
US President Donald Trump’s decision to re-designate Yemen’s Huthi rebels as a foreign terrorist organisation could have deep implications for aid and the peace process in the war-shattered country.
The Iran-backed Huthis, who control much of Yemen, have fired on Israel and Red Sea shipping throughout the Gaza war, prompting reprisal strikes from US, Israeli and British forces.
Already the Arabian Peninsula’s poorest country before the war broke out a decade ago, Yemen is now suffering one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with about two-thirds of its 34 million people in need of aid.
Former US president Joe Biden removed the Huthis from the foreign terrorist list after humanitarian groups protested that they could not get aid to Yemen’s needy without dealing with the rebels.
Meanwhile, fighting has largely stopped since the United Nations brokered a ceasefire in 2022, but the peace process has stalled and risks disintegrating if tensions rise.
AFP examines the US designation and its potential consequences.
What does the new designation mean?
Trump intends to return the Huthis to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO), where he placed them during his first term.
A year ago under Biden, they were placed on the less-severe list of Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) groups, which still had the effect of freezing their assets and cutting off sources of financing.
The re-designation could take several weeks. Presuming it is successful, anyone who engages or works with the Huthis, whose territory is home to most of Yemen’s population, will risk being prosecuted by the United States.
“Unlike SDGT, FTO restrictions encompass even indirect forms of contact or meetings with the group, which may be penalised if deemed supportive,” said Mohammed Al-Basha of the Basha Report, a US-based risk advisory.
“This expanded and more punitive framework not only cuts off financial lifelines but also significantly undermines the group’s operational capabilities, international mobility, and legitimacy.”
According to Elisabeth Kendall, director of Girton College at the University of Cambridge, Trump intends to adopt a “zero-tolerance policy regarding Huthi aggression, irrespective of the potential repercussions for civilians”.
“The debate is not about whether the FTO designation is merited. Most Western analysts agree that it is,” Kendall told AFP.
“The debate is about whether it will pressure the Huthis and ultimately help halt their attacks. This is less clear.”
How will it affect Yemen’s people?
Although Biden’s downgrade in the Huthis’ terror rating followed an outcry from aid agencies, humanitarian groups have so far remained quiet about Trump’s order.
It is nonetheless likely that projects receiving US aid will be scaled down or suspended.
Abdulghani al-Iryani, a researcher at the Sanaa Center For Strategic Studies, an independent think-tank, said: “It will cause immense difficulties in providing humanitarian assistance.
“The punishment is not going to be just on areas that the Huthis control, while they are of course the majority of the Yemeni population, but it will even affect the others who are under government control.”
Iryani said Sanaa’s banks would go bust, harming depositors all over the country, and that Yemen’s wheat suppliers were likely to suspend their contracts, as they did the first time the Huthis were placed on the FTO list.
“It’s just a mess,” he said. “Maybe in the long term, this will break the backbone of the Huthis, but I think famine will set in well before the Huthis’ backbone is broken.”
What about the peace process?
The Huthis have been fighting a Saudi-led coalition that backs the ousted government, in a war that has been mainly on hold since the 2022 ceasefire.
But after the warring parties committed to a peace process in December 2023, momentum has stalled, with the Huthis raising tensions by attacking Israel and harassing the Red Sea shipping corridor during the Gaza war.
Iryani said the new designation “kills any prospect” of peace talks, adding that previously, “at least, there was the chance of starting again with a proper structure for negotiations. But now, we can’t even talk to them.”
Basha concurred that the redesignation raises the risk of conflict reigniting in Yemen.
“The Huthis are likely to interpret the FTO designation as a declaration of war, potentially resuming maritime attacks on US commercial and naval assets by March,” he said.
“Should a US Navy warship be struck and sailors harmed, the situation could escalate rapidly, leading to a protracted conflict.”
But Ibrahim Jalal, a non-resident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said the FTO listing could point to a new direction for Yemen.
“If the decision… is part of a comprehensive strategy, the Yemeni government and its partners must seize the historic opportunity to impose a national project that strengthens the pillars of peace and stability,” he posted on X.
Source » al-monitor.com
