How viable is a Türkiye-Syria-Iraq triangle to fight terrorism?
During a recent visit to Baghdad, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for combined regional efforts to combat the PKK in Iraq, as well as its wing YPG in neighboring Syria and Daesh in the region. The scheme raised many questions about whether it is viable, considering the relevant countries’ stances, priorities, terrorist groups and outside factors.
“I want to emphasize this fact in the strongest way: The PKK is targeting Türkiye, Iraq and Syria,” Fidan said. There is a clear understanding between Türkiye and Iraq on how to address the situation there, he said, adding that Baghdad was in contact with the new Syrian authorities and was “trying to coordinate on many issues.”
Fidan further said he had discussed possible cooperation mechanisms on intelligence and operational matters, as well as the involvement of regional countries, against Daesh during his visit. However, Ankara’s main priority lies in countering its decade-long PKK problem, which has previously caused strains in its ties with Baghdad. With the new picture in Syria after Bashar Assad’s fall, Türkiye hopes to revive efforts to kick out the YPG, sever its links with the PKK in neighboring Iraq and ensure Syria’s territorial integrity to secure its southern borders finally.
“The fact that a Shiite-dominated Baghdad administration could face off against a Salafi-Sunni administration in Syria is a dilemma in itself. Seeing that Baghdad is still uncertain on the issue, it would be exaggerated to expect it to enter into a partnership against the PKK,” said Mehmet Alaca, an expert on Iraq. He continued by pointing out that Iraq must first adopt a clear position on the PKK itself and show it views the group as a threat in its practices. “For instance, we have to see what it will do against the tactical cooperation between the PKK and Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq’s Sinjar. Although consensus forms on the issue between Ankara and Baghdad, Iraq might not favor a counterterrorism operation against the YPG.”
Indeed, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said last week that Türkiye attacking YPG forces in Syria’s north would be dangerous and create more refugees – a clear sign of aversion. The Turkish top diplomat’s visit took place amid repeated calls from Türkiye for the YPG in northeast Syria to disband following the fall of Assad, with Ankara warning it could mount a new cross-border operation against the group unless its concerns are addressed.
Baghdad has recently sharpened its tone against the PKK, and last year, it quietly listed the group as a “banned organization” – though Ankara demands the Iraqi government do more in the fight against the group. Fidan mentioned his country hoped Baghdad would declare the PKK a “terrorist” organization. In August, Baghdad and Ankara signed a military cooperation deal to establish joint command and training centers with the aim of fighting the PKK.
What is more, Fidan’s visit comes also after two Iraqi border guards were killed last week near the Turkish border in a shooting that Baghdad blamed on the PKK.
“Considering that Iraq, which refrained from seeing the PKK as its own problem for many years, acknowledged the issue only after Türkiye’s pressure and diplomatic initiatives, it would be far too optimistic to enter excessive expectations on Baghdad’s fight against the organization and related structures,” said Alaca. He reiterated that Kurdish geopolitics in Syria have not been Baghdad’s main focus for years. Moreover, Iran-linked Iraqi militia groups’ support for Assad and the PKK, as well as continuing cooperation in the Sinjar region, have prevented the YPG’s activities from being labeled as dangerous. “The close relation between the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which is also close with Iran, and the YPG, as well as claims that YPG ringleader Ferhat Abdi Şahin carries an Iraqi passport, also says something regarding the Baghdad administration’s stance on the issue.”
For Syria’s part, Oytun Orhan, a Levant expert, said “there is great potential” for cooperation in counterterrorism between the three countries. “Carrying out border security, tracking the PKK and Daesh’s activities, and establishing intelligence in a coordinated manner will have significant outcomes for the three countries as well as for regional security.”
Daesh-YPG problems linked
Orhan stressed that Daesh is strongest in Iraq and Syria, which also hosts camps for Daesh members and their families. Ensuring the security of prisons and camps with Daesh-affiliated individuals and repatriating these militias would aid greatly in resolving the problem.
“Türkiye can support Iraq and Syria in the development of their military capabilities while also offering assistance in planning rehabilitation programs for Daesh militant families.”
Saying that the PKK similarly is a joint nuisance, Oytun continued to add that controlling border passings and thus preventing terrorist activities jointly would help eradicate the threat. “Furthermore, solving the Daesh problem would also lift the raison d’etre of the YPG.”
The U.S. had for years advocated that the YPG serve in the fight against Daesh and is, therefore, vital – a main sticking point between Ankara and Washington that could be resolved in the near future.
“All these developments are also parallel with the priorities of the Syrian government as it would guarantee internal unity and present the new administration as a global partner against terrorism, aiding its international recognition,” Orhan said. He indicated that the Syrian administration prefers political means to solve the YPG problem but that the group’s demands and the government’s solution model have gaps.
“The YPG prefers to stay as a bloc within the Syrian Defense Ministry and operate within its own area. However, this model could bring together the threat of territorial disintegration in the long term. Thus, it might not be accepted by the government. The stance the U.S. will take here will be decisive. The U.S. withdrawing from Syria could facilitate a political solution, yet continued support for the YPG could embolden the group against Damascus and lead the government toward a military solution,” Orhan underlined.
The new U.S. administration under Donald Trump is yet silent on its Syria policy. Trump has decreased the number of U.S. troops in Syria during his previous term, which has raised questions among regional countries as to whether this policy could continue, with Washington increasingly turning its focus toward the Far East to counter China.
Alaca, for his part, pointed out that the direction Baghdad will choose in its relations with the new Syrian government will determine what kind of Syria Iraq wants to see and what it can do within this scope. “Baghdad’s stance on the PKK and YPG in Syria will also take shape within this framework. What is more, the support that Iran, which has been ousted from Syria but is still hegemonic in Iraq, will give to the PKK will also stick Baghdad on parallel politics. Especially if the U.S. attempts to oust Iranian militias from Iraq, the resulting turmoil would surely negatively affect a joint fight against the PKK.”
The possibility of a stable Syria that strives to achieve its territorial integrity brings together new projections for the region and for Türkiye – whose end goal is to eradicate the PKK threat once and for all. The PKK has used the Türkiye-Syria-Iraq line for too long to coordinate its terrorist activities as well as the transfer of recruits and military equipment. Severing this line will be critical and depends on the cooperation of the new Syrian government and the Baghdad administration. The individual interests and geopolitical considerations of each actor will determine how the fight against regional terrorism will shape the upcoming period.
Source » dailysabah.com
