Hezbollah aims to escalate tensions leading to a full-scale war

The Middle East is bracing for an Israeli response to Hezbollah’s rocket attack on Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights on Saturday that killed 12 children and wounded more than 40 people.

After months of sustained rocket and drone fire from Lebanon on Israel’s north, Hezbollah’s attack may have been the game changer, according to experts who spoke with JNS.

According to Col. (res.) Eran Lerman, deputy director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and a former deputy director of the Israeli National Security Council, one possible scenario involves an Israeli response that could be “a painful but contained strike on something (or someone) of high value to Hezbollah, coupled with a demonstrated ability to obliterate Lebanese infrastructure, sending the message that ‘We can do to you what we did to the Houthis.’”

“Then, or rather concurrently, leveraging Hezbollah’s internal problem with the Druze to push them off north of the Litani River, possibly enabling the evacuated to return [to their homes in northern Israel],” said Lerman.

Israel’s response, he added, is “intimately related to the Iranian nuclear issue, which is becoming acute and may lead to sudden action.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday visited the site of the tragedy in Majdal Shams, together with Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar.

In his remarks, Netanyahu said, “These children are our children; they are the children of us all. The State of Israel will not, and cannot, ignore this. Our response will come and it will be severe.”

That response is what has the global community on edge. The U.S. and France have expressed their wish to see a calming of tensions to prevent an all-out war.

Meanwhile, several airlines have canceled flights in and out of Lebanon and several countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible.

Whether or not the United States would back Israel in the event of an all-out war is still unclear, but in June, CNN reported that senior American officials had assured Israel that Washington is prepared to “fully back” its ally in the event of a further escalation on the northern border.

Israel’s next step must be not only to exact a price for the tragedy Hezbollah caused, but must also restore at least a minimal level of deterrence.

More skilled, armed and sophisticated than Hamas

Dana Polak, a researcher at the Alma Research and Education Center situated in the Galilee, told JNS that to deter Hezbollah, “it is necessary to act not only through military means but also through financial, political, social and international measures.

“Relying solely on deterrence cannot be Israel’s only strategy,” she said. “When dealing with a terrorist organization, particularly Hezbollah, which operates from a religious perspective, deterrence alone will not prevent it from carrying out attacks and thus is not a relevant strategy.”

As Polak noted, Hezbollah is “more skilled, armed and sophisticated than Hamas, with military experience gained during the Syrian civil war.”

It is true, as she observed, that Hezbollah has a vast stockpile of rockets and thus poses a threat to Israel, but the organization does not pose an existential threat to the country.

“Hezbollah does not possess any capabilities that the IDF cannot handle,” Polak said.

The current sentiment in Israel is that given the lessons from Oct. 7, Israel cannot allow a terrorist enemy such as Hezbollah to constitute a major threat on the border, and therefore it must be destroyed, not just temporarily deterred.

For this reason, it is possible that an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to occur soon, likely within the next two years, according to Polak.

However, she noted, “this may not necessarily be initiated by Israel.”

“Hezbollah has been seeking to draw Israel into conflict since October 2023, and even earlier,” she said. “Hezbollah desires a confrontation with Israel and aims to escalate tensions leading to a full-scale war, as this aligns with its broader interest in strengthening its position in Lebanon.”

Source » jns.org