Global Terrorism

Despite shifting U.S. security priorities, such as the growing military and economic challenges posed by Russia and China, terrorism remains a top concern. The Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center (GTTAC), which compiles data for the U.S. Department of State’s annual terrorism reports, consistently records between 7,000 and 9,000 terrorist attacks yearly. Over the past three years, more than 55 percent of these attacks have been attributed to Salafi-jihadist terrorist groups. In 2024, GTTAC documented over 8,000 attacks, with Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda affiliates continuing to be major perpetrators. 

ISIS-Core in Syria, along with its affiliates in Nigeria, the Sahel, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, were responsible for a significant number of attacks in 2024. Notably, the ISIS branch in Somalia has drawn attention as its leadership consolidates power in the region. Al-Qaeda affiliates also increased their activity in 2024. The group’s regional branch, Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), has taken advantage of political instability following recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, thereby intensifying its operations. Al-Shabaab, another Al-Qaeda affiliate, showed a decline in attacks in Somalia in 2024 but remains capable of using complex tactics, such as suicide bombings and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). More critically, Al-Qaeda has benefited from Taliban rule in Afghanistan, which has enabled the group to re-establish itself. Its affiliate, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), was responsible for nearly 500 attacks in Pakistan in 2024. Governments in these regions face substantial challenges, including limited resources and widespread corruption. As a result, many are ill-equipped to counter the growing terrorist threat effectively. Consequently, it is highly likely that ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates will continue to pose significant regional and global threats in 2025. 

The effectiveness of terrorism as a strategic approach has been widely debated. While many scholars argue that terrorism can be a useful tactic for non-state actors, they often believe it ultimately fails to produce lasting, long-term results. However, the Taliban’s use of terror tactics and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) recent expansion in Syria challenge this view, suggesting that, in some cases, terrorism can effectively achieve its strategic goals. As a result, both the Taliban and HTS may serve as models for other jihadist groups with similar objectives in 2025. Consequently, shifting priorities within Western governments have contributed to HTS’s rise. The U.S. has focused more on the strategic threat posed by China, while the European Union has been preoccupied with the refugee crisis. In this context, Turkiye has played a central role in facilitating HTS’s growth in Syria, and its actions appear to have been tacitly supported by Western governments. Despite these developments, Syria’s future remains uncertain. There are ongoing concerns about whether an authoritarian and often corrupt Turkish government can help guide Syria toward a stable and representative political system. Moreover, ISIS continues to be the most active and powerful actor in Syria, responsible for about one-third of the country’s terrorist attacks in 2024. There also are concerns over whether Kurdish forces in northern Syria will continue to receive U.S. support in their fight against ISIS. As such, Syria is likely to remain a key issue on the global agenda for counterterrorism in 2025. 

The re-election of President Trump has reignited debates about the potential designation of Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations. Current definitions of terrorism focus on intentional violence for political, social, ideological, or religious goals, typically carried out by non-state actors. However, these definitions do not encompass the violent actions of Mexican cartels, which often employ terror tactics and target individuals such as politicians and journalists. While their methods resemble those of terrorists, the cartels’ ultimate goal is financial gain rather than political or ideological objectives. As a result, discussions within the U.S. government about cartel violence in 2025 will likely center on the concept of narco-terrorism. 

Lone-actor terrorism is considered one of the most dangerous forms of terrorism due to the self-radicalization of individuals, often influenced by social media, who act independently and are difficult to track. Over the past decade, this form of terrorism has been perpetrated by individuals motivated by both far-right extremism and jihadism. In 2024, GTTAC recorded several lone-actor attacks in Europe, some of which were inspired by neo-Nazi ideologies and jihadist movements. A notable attack occurred in December 2024 in Germany, when a lone actor targeted a Christmas market, further emphasizing the ongoing threat posed by self-radicalized individuals. Additionally, the recent attack in New Orleans highlights the continued influence of ISIS in inspiring lone actors, illustrating the global reach of this extremism. In 2025, the aftermath of Hamas’s October 7 terror attacks, combined with perceived overreactions by the Israeli government, may create a favorable environment for further radicalization, particularly on social media platforms, thus increasing the risk of similar attacks. Given these developments, it is imperative to focus greater attention on lone-actor terrorism in 2025. 

One of the significant outcomes of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel has been the heightened visibility of the Iranian regime’s involvement in supporting and directing militia groups across the Middle East. These groups, which include the Houthis in Yemen, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) and Saraya Awliya al-Dam in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various Shia militia factions in Syria, have actively targeted both Israeli and U.S. military assets and interests in the region. Operating under the strategic direction of Tehran, these militias are equipped with advanced weaponry, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missiles, supplied by Iran. Given the continuing support from Tehran, it is highly likely that these groups will persist in 2025 in posing a significant security threat to American forces and interests in the Middle East.

Source » hstoday.us