Behind the fall of Aleppo
Since the Syrian civil war began, around 2012, approximately 6.9 million people have been internally displaced, and an additional 6.8 million are refugees, mainly in Turkey and Jordan — and Lebanon, until the Israeli assault drove some back to Syria.
Aleppo, the country’s second city, was seized at the end of November by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading force in the so-called National Salvation Government which controls the province of Idlib.
The civil war has long been complicated. On the one side, forces loyal to Assad and his backers: Hezbollah from Lebanon, Iran, Iraqi Shia militias, and Russia. On the other: a loose and fragmented alliance under the banner of the Syrian National Army (previously the Free Syrian Army) backed by Turkey and sometimes Qatar and other Arab states; other Salafist or hardline Sunni Islamist groups including Daesh (ISIS).
Around 2014-5 Daesh held a vast swathe of territory across Syria and Iraq, but since about 2019 Assad’s government almost entirely regained control, with only Idlib holding out, plus Kurdish areas thanks to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish-led force that has had US backing and was crucial for re-taking territory from Daesh.
HTS comes from mergers and splits in 2017 among several groups, including Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s former affiliate in Syria. HTS severed formal ties with AQ, but its leader, Muhammed al-Julani, was formerly in AQ in Iraq under the leadership of Abu Musab Al Zarqawi.
Idlib
He has undertaken a form of “modernisation” of his movement and has faced protests from both hardliners and the population of Idlib. HTS remains a sectarian Sunni Islamist organisation. It seeks to set up an Islamic government across Syria. Christians are already attempting to leave Aleppo.
An informal but unstable truce could exist between HTS and the Kurds for a time, but there is significant tension between them and their changing regional alliances. Turkish President Erdogan wants to drive the Kurds from the northeast and would be able to assist HTS in doing so. Russia has brokered an uneasy but stable split in Syria, leaving Assad the majority of the country since 2016, the Kurdish forces in the northeast and other rebels like HTS in the northwest. The US, under Biden, wants to maintain a relationship with what it can see as reliable Kurdish forces. Trump may choose to ally with Turkey.
HTS’s new ability to take Aleppo is, probably, a knock-on from conflict between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran. The Assad regime has been reliant on support from Iran and from Hezbollah and their allied militias. Both have suffered from Israeli attacks on their capabilities.
Russia, since invading Ukraine, had withdrawn most of its ground forces from Syria. It has now resumed bombing HTS targets in Idlib on behalf of Assad.
Source » workersliberty
