Assad regime’s fall ‘tremendously resets the table of security in the Middle East,’ former top Pentagon official says
Dana Stroul, a former top Pentagon official in the Biden administration, framed the fall of the Assad regime in Syria as a potentially seismic development with significant implications for U.S. policy toward Iran and the region going forward.
“The Russia-Iran-Assad axis is broken,” Stroul, now the director of research at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said on a webinar with the Jewish Community Relations Council of Greater Washington on Tuesday, “I think that tremendously resets the table of security in the Middle East and opens space to reimagine what a more stable Syria could look like.”
Stroul said Assad’s fall puts Iran, as well as Russia, on their back feet, and opens new opportunities for crushing the remains of ISIS and Al-Qaida and eliminating Iranian supply lines to Hezbollah.
She framed the next year as a critical and “very high risk” period for Iran policy, with the upcoming expiration of all United Nations sanctions on Iran in October, amid Iran’s escalating nuclear activity. Stroul said that snapback of U.N. sanctions under the 2015 nuclear deal — something that European nations with the authority to invoke snapback have resisted — is increasingly under consideration as a method of deterring Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon.
Stroul said that there are also growing discussions around whether now is “a once in a generation” opportunity to take military action against Iran’s nuclear program.
She said that the extent of Iran’s vulnerability “will be a central point of discussion in the incoming Trump administration,” adding that recent months have shown that key elements of Iran’s capabilities — its drone and missile arsenal and its proxies — have been neutered or shown to be ineffective.
And she added that Israel’s strikes eliminating Iranian air defenses have left its nuclear facilities more vulnerable than ever.
“The threshold of fear, the fear barrier, has been lowered,” Stroul said. “Should the Trump administration decide that military force is necessary in 2025, it will be very hard for the regime to protect itself.”
Stroul said that recent events could show that Iran is weaker than its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believed and discourage him from rushing toward a nuclear bomb. But she also noted that a recent U.S. intelligence estimate indicates that Iran is working to position itself to potentially pursue a nuclear weapon — a change from previous assessments that Iran had not decided to pursue a nuclear weapon — and that Iran has been building up stockpiles of fissile material.
“What’s very clear is that if they make the political decision to do it, they can do it,” Stroul said. “The game now is how to influence that political thinking in Tehran to not make that decision.”
Iran, in response to the elevated threats it faces, has made a push for renewed nuclear negotiations. Noting Trump’s penchant for dealmaking and lack of interest in a war in the Middle East, Stroul suggested that a deal could be a possibility.
Stroul called recent public reporting suggesting progress toward a hostage deal with Hamas “very promising.” She said Hamas may be more amenable to dealmaking now than in the past because it may feel isolated, given the degradation of Hezbollah, the fall of the Syrian regime and Iran’s decision not to intervene to protect the Assad regime.
“Hamas is looking around the region and thinking, ‘Well, now might be the time where we can at least save ourselves,’” she said. “So the question, I think, is the number of hostages and phasing over what period of time, and then the disposition of IDF forces, and I think those issues are being actively discussed.”
Addressing Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia, Stroul said that the price from the Saudis for such a deal has gone up since Oct. 7, adding that in Saudi Arabia and throughout the Arab world, it’s a common and essentially undisputed view among the general populace that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, fueled by a one-sided media environment.
Leaders, she said, are not pushing back on that notion, out of fear of upsetting their populaces.
“Going forward, what’s remarkable to me is that the Saudis have not taken normalization with Israel off the table,” Stroul said.
She argued that the future of normalization is dependent on what the Israeli government is able to offer in terms of progress toward a Palestinian state, noting that some in the Israeli government are stridently opposed to any such concessions.
The Israeli populace is also largely opposed to a two-state solution following the Oct. 7 attack, and there is no credible, representative government for the Palestinian people at this point that would be capable of negotiating a deal, Stroul continued.
Some media reports on Tuesday, after Stroul’s comments, suggested that normalization talks had taken a leap forward.
In Syria, Stroul highlighted the influence of Turkey backing the victorious rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
She said Turkey’s goals will likely include looking for ways to promote stability through its connections with the new ruling government, while also trying to break the U.S. alliance with Kurdish militias, which Turkey treats as terrorist groups.
She emphasized that the latter push could be cause for concern because the Kurds make up much of the force responsible for ensuring that around 9,000 ISIS fighters remain imprisoned in Syria. Stroul added that Turkey’s affiliations with HTS are likely a cause for concern for Israel, given the HTS leadership’s ties to Al-Qaida.
“This is going to be a very fraught space, and I think this is actually a clear area where U.S. engagement is going to be critical, both for working with Turkey, a NATO ally, and upholding the long-standing U.S. commitment to Israel’s security,” Stroul said.
Stroul also expressed concerns about instability in the West Bank, which she said was being fueled by Israeli policies and could create openings for Iran and its proxies.
She described Israeli settler violence, and a lack of accountability for it, as a challenge to the arguments from American supporters of Israel that the U.S. and Israel are joined by shared values.
Stroul also suggested that the Palestinian Authority “could be on the verge of collapse,” the Palestinian security forces are underequipped and under-resourced, the West Bank economy is in a precarious position and the current Palestinian Authority leadership lacks legitimacy.
“With respect to Iran, the last thing the IDF needs is the West Bank collapsing and having to take over complete security control of the West Bank,” Stroul said. “So I would say from a stability perspective, from an economic perspective, from a rule of law perspective and from a values perspective, it’s in Israel’s longterm, enduring security interest to figure out a way to have a partner on the Palestinian side in the West Bank.”
She further noted that a push by Israel to annex parts of the West Bank, which some Israeli cabinet members are urging, would create “problems maintaining the bipartisan base of support that I believe has been critical for Israel’s and for Israel’s security and this long term relationship.”
Source » jewishinsider.com
