Analysis: What to know about HTS, Hezbollah and Iran after Assad’s fall in Syria

The ascendance of Sunni Islamist rebels in Syria should be viewed with great caution by Western powers, but the Assad regime’s collapse disables a critical node in Iran’s regional proxy network.

Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a Sunni Islamist group. How should the U.S. and its regional allies view its ascendancy in Syria?

With grave alarm. The U.S. State Department has long offered a $10 million reward for the capture of HTS founder and leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani. He fought under the notorious al-Qaeda in Iraq leader, Abu Musab Zarqawi, and subsequently spent five years in an Iraqi prison for his terrorist activities. In 2011, he returned to Syria and founded Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda franchise in that country.

As its commander, he was responsible for detention and torture of American journalist Theo Padnos (née Theo Peter Curtis) between 2012 and 2014, among other crimes. Al-Jawlani claims that HTS broke with al-Qaeda in 2016 and no longer adheres to its Salafi-jihadi ideology — a claim doubted by knowledgeable observers.

What are the dynamics between HTS and the Islamic State remnants in central Syria?

As noted above, HTS emerged from the older Jabhat al-Nusra founded by al-Jawlani. Al-Jawlani had resented the attempts of the self-declared Islamic State, known as ISIS, to dominate Jabhat al-Nusra, and this resulted in a permanent breakdown in relations when al-Jawlani refused to bend to ISIS founder and leader Abu Bakr al-Baghadai’s will.

But that was a decade when ISIS was in its ascendance and could afford to ignore the upstart Jabhat al-Nusra. Today, the situation is the reverse, and with ISIS profoundly weakened, the prospect of reconciliation and even amalgamation or alliance cannot be completely dismissed.

What does Assad’s fall mean for Hezbollah’s military power in the region?

In the past, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had counted upon the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah’s well-trained and often battle-hardened fighters to backstop Syria’s military. Hezbollah’s intervention had thus proved critical in both the suppression of the array of rebel forces challenging the regime since 2011 and in preserving the Assad family’s rule. But over the past three months, Israel’s unrelenting assault on Hezbollah’s leadership and foot soldiers has decimated the movement, rendering it incapable of rushing to Assad’s aid this past week.

The rebel victory in Syria, led by HTS, thus poses an existential threat to Hezbollah. First, Hezbollah has lost its immensely important overland lifeline that ran from Iran through Syria to Lebanon. HTS will likely staunch the flow of Iranian weaponry and other materiel, as well as impede the ability of Iran’s Islamist Revolutionary Guard Corps and Quds Force advisors to continue to sustain and support Hezbollah.

Second, Israel’s Air Force has reportedly already struck Iranian missile facilities in Damascus that had nourished Hezbollah’s previously formidable array of long-, medium-, and short-range missiles and rockets. Finally, with Hezbollah already severely weakened by Israel and now more geographically isolated from Iran, its myriad opponents in Lebanon, after four decades, could be emboldened to move against it and curtail its power and influence over Lebanon once and for all.

How much is this a turning point for Iran’s “axis of resistance”?

The loss of Syria as an ally as a base of operations, and perhaps as the most critical node in Iran’s “axis of resistance,” coupled with the likely neutering of Hezbollah, will further isolate Tehran and undermine its ability to use proxies to project power and influence throughout the region.

Israel has already systematically dismantled the leadership and operational infrastructures of two out of three of Iran’s main catspaws in the Middle East (Hamas and Hezbollah). This leaves only the Houthis, situated far afield on the southern flank of the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, as Iran’s only proxy with any kind of serious offensive capabilities.

What does Assad’s fall mean for Hezbollah’s political influence in Lebanon?

Hezbollah had already suffered a crushing blow with the loss of at least fifteen of its most senior leaders, including its long-time secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah. His successor and former deputy, Sayed Naim Qassem, has none of Nasrallah’s charisma, much less combat experience and battle leadership.

It is unlikely that Qassem has the authority or ability to lead Hezbollah out of the depths of despair it now finds itself in. All those in Lebanon who have long opposed and hated Hezbollah for its ruthless domination of the country’s politics and economy will likely seize on this opportunity to challenge its decades-long primacy.

What should Israel and the United States be doing in the coming days and weeks in Syria?

The United States, first and foremost, should ensure the security and protection of its nine hundred or so military personnel stationed at the al-Tanf garrison in eastern Syria along the border with Iraq. Second, and just as critical, is continuing to support our Kurdish allies in the Syrian Democratic Forces, who are currently under assault by Turkey’s Syrian proxy, the Syrian National Army. This clash between the local allies of two key North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states is one of the ironies of the Syrian civil war and underscores its complexity and volatility.

Third, the United States, France, and other European countries should immediately earmark and prioritize greater assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces. This urgent enhancement of their capabilities is needed to enable Lebanon’s legal, duly constituted armed forces to fill the vacuum of security left by Hezbollah’s weakening and to better defend the territorial integrity and internal security of Lebanon against potential threats from HTS, ISIS, and other Syrian-based jihadi terrorist groups.

As for Israel, the Israel Defense Forces have already seized the strategically vital Mount Hermon and strategic towns and villages in the territory along the border with Syria to ensure that rebel jihadi forces cannot threaten Israel. The Israeli Air Force will likely continue its air strikes to prevent military assets, including chemical weapons, missile technology, and intelligence, from falling into rebel hands.

Source » pbs.org