An insight into Global Terrorism trends 2024
As we step into 2025, there are indications of a sustained escalation in the tempo of global terrorist activities from diverse threat groups. During 2024 the intricate interplay of ideological fervor, geopolitical shifts and technological advancements is poised to define the global terrorism landscape in unprecedented ways. Concurrently, the resurgence of state-supported terrorism (by some powerful nations) amplifies challenges for security forces, contributing to a more volatile and intricate security landscape. 2025 will see the use of weaponized drones by terror cells and precision attacks by “loitering munitions”. There will be challenges to “air” security as this new dimension, augmented with “swarm tactics” unleashes its airborne violence. World peace will be challenged and harassed.
Following the 7 October Hamas attack and Israel’s robust response a third wave of global Jihadi terrorism is blossoming. Comparable to the aftermath of al-Qaeda’s attack of the World Trade Centers in 2001 and the U.S. response marking the first wave, and the second wave was catalyzed by the Islamic State’s (IS) proclamation of a caliphate in 2014.
The current wave is evolving in the wake of the Hamas attack and subsequent Gaza operations by Israel. The main protagonist within the Jihadi milieu, the IS group is poised to escalate its activities. Having transitioned from a centralised caliphate to a decentralized organisational entity (with multi-national foreign fighters), IS has proven to be a formidable challenge on the global stage.
The surge in radicalisation within once peaceful Muslim communities, coupled with the mobilisation of threat groups, significantly heightens the probability of future attacks worldwide. Consequently, as we move into 2025, the potential for attacks by foreign actors (with various ideologies and motives) in Sri Lanka cannot be discounted. This is not a pessimistic warning but there is possibility of foreign terror groups (already active in South East Asia) exploiting and abusing the friendly elements of our beautiful culture, and manipulating vulnerable locals to “act out” with violence. However our formidable Armed Forces and prudent Intelligence agencies are very capable to face any such threat.
Globally we have witnessed terror acts – shown on international news channels. Based on that one can anticipate attack scenarios leaning towards strikes on targets with high concentrations of people, utilising methods ranging from knives and small weapons to the use of vehicles as battering rams. This is not to be taken as “isolated incidents”- every human life is precious. While these may lack the symbolism of a major attack, they can inflict fear on an individual level and negatively impact tourism. Some terror groups may feel compelled to orchestrate more ambitious attacks
Far-right terrorism
As far-right terrorism gains further momentum, an escalation in attacks is anticipated from racially and ethnically motivated violent extremists, including White supremacists and neo-Nazis. Many xenophobic populist movements have resorted to political violence to express their objectives. Both Europe and the U.S. have witnessed a surge in militant right-wing extremist groups.
Right-wing extremism refers to political ideologies and movements characterised by extreme conservative views, nationalist tendencies andauthoritarian beliefs.Far-right terrorism in the West continues to be characterized as small independent groups or lone actors targeting government institutions and minorities through small-arm attacks and assassinations. We can define extremism as follows: “Political opinions that are intolerant toward opposing interests and divergent opinions. Extremism forms the ideological foundation for political violence. Radical and reactionary extremists often rationalise and justify acts of violence committed on behalf of their cause.”
Organised hate groups such as the Ku Klux Klan and various incarnations of Hitler’s National Socialist (Nazi) Party have existed in the United States for decades. However, the advent of extremist paramilitary groups oriented toward survivalism, outdoor skills, guerrilla training, and outright sedition is a new phenomenon. These groups are bound by a shared hostility to any form of government above the county level, the vilification of Jews and nonwhites as children of Satan, an obsession with achieving the religious and racial purification of the United States.
Techno Terror
In the realm of operational strategies, terrorist groups are actively exploring emerging technologies to magnify the impact of their attacks. A noticeable trend over the past few years involves militants learning and adapting tactics from counterparts in different conflict zones, leading to more sophisticated terrorist acts.In addition, while the current level of the nuclear, biological, chemical, and radiological (NBCR) threat remains relatively low, technological advancements pose the potential to alter its trajectory significantly. New technologies, such as artificial intelligence, bioengineering, and 3D printing- emerge as noteworthy developments in the technology sector that could elevate the NBCR threat. The dual-use nature of chemical materials and the technology for weaponising these agents introduce a new dimension to the threat faced by counter- terrorism authorities.
Cyber-crime and terrorism
The world community has entered the age of the information boom. Each of us is becoming increasingly dependent on the information circulating in global computer networks, on its reliability, protection, and security.
Cybercriminals are using various types of attacks that allow them to penetrate corporate networks, seize control over them, or block exchanges of information. They also use computer viruses, including network worms, which modify or delete data or block the operation of computer systems. The weapons of cybercriminals are constantly being improved, and their tools for mounting information attacks are becoming increasingly refined. In the future, we can expect to see new nontraditional types of network attacks and computer crimes.
The goal of most criminal acts is to generate a profit. To enjoy their ill-gotten gains, criminals and terrorist groups commonly seek to disguise the illegal source of those profits.Money laundering is the process of dealing in, disguising or concealing the origin of illicit funds to make it appear legitimate.
Terrorism financing refers to the means and methods that terrorist organisations use to finance activities that pose a threat to national and international security. The money that enables terrorist organisations to carry out terrorist activities can come from both legitimate and criminal sources.
A particular concern is that global computer networks present unique new opportunities for facilitating the laundering of proceeds from criminal activity. This phenomenon is manifested in the creation and operation of so-called “virtual banks”. The main problem is that such banks operate with very little oversight, and it is not always clear where crimes involving them are committed.Terrorism financing and the ways in which it intersects with organised criminal activities including drug trafficking, arms trafficking, smuggling of migrants, and kidnapping-for-ransom is increasingly attracting the attention of the international community.
The Global Terrorism Index 2024 (GTI) highlights that terrorism remains a serious global threat, with total deaths from terrorism increasing by 22%.
The central Sahel region has conclusively overtaken the Middle East as terrorism’s epicentre with Islamic State (IS) and Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), a franchise of Al-Qaeda, being the most active terrorist organisation. Violent conflict remains the primary driver of terrorism, with over 90% of attacks and 98% of terrorism deaths in 2023 taking place in countries in conflict. Terrorism also thrives in areas of political instability; it is imperative that current political tensions and minor conflicts do not escalate and that current conflicts are resolved, otherwise further increases in terrorism are likely.Left unchecked regional instabilities could fan the flames of a new wave of terrorism.
Source » dailynews.lk
